[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF THE CAPE VERDES MOVING W
10 KT.  A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION IS NOTED.  CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED WITH THE WAVE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING
FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WEAK TURNING IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.  THE GFS
FORECASTS THIS WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE THU WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER S OF 15N.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 37W-45W.

WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 66W S
OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN
58W-64W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 64W-68W.  STRONG SW
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD IMPACT PUERTO RICO MIDDAY TUE WITH A SURGE IN TRADES
BEHIND THE WAVE.

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 11N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING W 15-20 KT.  TSTMS OVER COLOMBIA MIGHT BE
RELATED TO THE WEAK WAVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 74W-80W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 7N40W 6N50W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 33W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  10-15
KT ELY FLOW IS NOTED.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 92W-94W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
TEXAS FROM 25W-28W BETWEEN 97W-99W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER W TEXAS NEAR 32N100W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  A RIDGE IS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 92W PRODUCING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS W OF 85W.  EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF...TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  25 KT -
30 KT WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 70W-78W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PANAMA.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.  SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER SE CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 70W-77W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NW NEAR 20N92W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF
80W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.  ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 10N65W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL
WAVES TO MOVE W.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DOMINATING SURFACE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS 1032 HIGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N38W.  RELATIVELY LIGHT ELY FLOW
WITH FAIR WEATHER IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-68W.  EARLIER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AFRICAN DUST E OF 55W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 66W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
27N78W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 72W.  RIDGING IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 65W-72W WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN
70W-77W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N46W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 18N BETWEEN
38W-58W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 38W.

$$
FORMOSA



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