[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF THE CAPE VERDES MOVING W
15 KT.  A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION IS NOTED.  CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED WITH THE WAVE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING
FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS 39W MOVING W 15-20 KT.  WEAK
TURNING IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.  THE GFS
FORECASTS THIS WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE THU WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER S OF 15N.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 37W-42W.

WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 64W S
OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN
58W-64W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 61W-66W.  STRONG SW
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD IMPACT PUERTO RICO MIDDAY TUE WITH A SURGE IN TRADES
BEHIND THE WAVE.

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 11N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING W 15-20 KT.  TSTMS OVER COLOMBIA MIGHT BE
RELATED TO THE WEAK WAVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 74W-80W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 6N40W 6N50W 9N60W.  IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION NEAR TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
15W-17W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
17W-37W...AND BETWEEN 42W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR
32N91W.  THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT
ELY FLOW.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 90W-95W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER S TEXAS FROM 25W-29W BETWEEN 96W-99W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER W
TEXAS NEAR 33N100W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF
THE CENTER.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG
90W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS N OF 25N.  EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF...TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  25 KT -
30 KT WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 70W-78W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PANAMA.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.  SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER SE CUBA
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NW NEAR 20N90W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W.  THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
70W-80W.  ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 10N65W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO
MOVE W.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DOMINATING SURFACE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS 1032 HIGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N46W.  RELATIVELY LIGHT ELY FLOW
WITH FAIR WEATHER IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-68W.  EARLIER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AFRICAN DUST E OF 55W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 64W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
28N77W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 72W.  RIDGING IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 65W-72W WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN
73W-78W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N46W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 18N BETWEEN
38W-58W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 38W.

$$
FORMOSA


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