[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 25W S OF THE CAPE VERDES
MOVING W 15 KT.  AFTER A STRING OF RELATIVELY HIGH-AMPLITUDE
WAVES THE PAST TWO TO LEAVE AFRICA HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER.  QUIKSCAT FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED A BROAD CIRCULATION
THOUGH THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED AXIS FROM SATELLITE.  CONVECTION
HAS ALSO DISSIPATED WITH THE WAVE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL LEAVE W AFRICA TOMORROW
FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS 38W/39W MOVING W 15-20 KT.  WEAK
TURNING IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.  THE GFS
FORECASTS THIS WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE THU WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER S OF 15N.  FOR NOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 5N-9N THOUGH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE ON WED AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS AN
UPPER TROUGH.

WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ORIENTED
SSW TO NNE FROM 10N62.5W TO 19N59W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
COVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS S OF 17N
BETWEEN 58W-63W WITH OTHER TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF 18N58W.  STRONG
SW SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD IMPACT PUERTO RICO MIDDAY TUE WITH A SURGE IN TRADES
BEHIND THE WAVE... POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR WED.

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 11N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING W 15-20 KT.  A FLAREUP OF TSTMS OVER PANAMA
AND THE GULF OF PANAMA MIGHT BE RELATED TO THE WEAK WAVE.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
W 15 KT.  A FEW TSTMS ARE FOUND NEAR THE WAVE OVER THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS IN THE EPAC ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N16W 6N42W 10N61W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 18W-43W.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 11N
W OF 53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTHWARD THRU SE
LOUISIANA.  SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ARE
QUITE CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW GULF STATES
W OF LOUISIANA AND OVER SW FLORIDA.  DIVERGENCE FROM A
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS ENHANCING NW GULF
ACTIVITY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND GENERAL NE WINDS OVER S
FLORIDA FAVORING THE SW FLORIDA CONVECTION.  HIGH CLOUDS ALSO
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION... ADVECTED FROM AS FAR AWAY AS A
RATHER ACTIVE ITCZ IN THE EPAC.  RAINS CONTINUE TO FAR IN
PARCHED REGIONS OF S TEXAS EASTWARD THRU LOUISIANA AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN AVERAGE THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK.  INCREASING RAIN IS LIKELY FOR FLORIDA FOR LATE
TOMORROW AND BEYOND AS UPPER LOW A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE REGION.  GENERALLY LIGHT ELY WINDS COVER
THE GULF AND THIS SHOULDN'T CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN DOMINATES
THE AREA SAVE THE FAR NW AND SE PARTS WHICH HAS SOME UPPER
RIDGING.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 65W-85W OVER WATER IS
KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET AS ANY SIGNIFICANT TSTMS ARE
CONFINED TO LAND AREAS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG ITS PATH FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS... DIMINISHING WITH TIME INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.  THE ITCZ IS STILL DEPRESSED WELL TO THE S OF AVERAGE
AS IT HAS LEFT THE SW CARIBBEAN AND TSTMS ARE CONFINED TO LAND
AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS
THE AREA.. KEEPING TRADES QUITE BRISK.  ANOTHER TRADE SURGE IS
LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD BEHIND THE E CARIBBEAN WAVE WITH A
BOUT OF GALES POSSIBLE FOR WED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TSTMS FOR THE W CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN W
OF 80W FOR LATE THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LOW IS NEAR 29N77W OFFSHORE OF JACKSONVILLE DRIFTING SSW.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE SSE OF THE LOW FROM 24N-27.5N BETWEEN
72W-78W.  NARROW RIDGE IS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR
BERMUDA WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS NEAR AND W OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
TROUGH IS A LITTLE FARTHER E FROM 31N60W SSW TO NEAR 21N63W WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  UPPER RIDGING IS EXPANDING IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 55W S OF 20N WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ENHANCING TSTMS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ESPECIALLY IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.  LARGE MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD NEAR 29N47W WITH ITS CIRCULATION COVERING THE BASIN N
OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-58W ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
RIDGING IS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 34W WITH A
CLOSED HIGH NEAR 24N34W.  TROUGH DIPS INTO THE NE ATLC ALONG
20N23W TO JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.  THIS CONFIGURATION IS
KEEPING PRESSURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN AVERAGE IN THE NE ATLC AND
DISPLACING A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FARTHER WESTWARD
THAN AVERAGE.  1030 MB HIGH IS NEAR 27N43W WITH STRONG TRADES IN
THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 35W.  ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS SCANT THOUGH
UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE FROM NW SENEGAL ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 16N42W.

$$
BLAKE



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