[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 33W S OF 11N MOVING
W 10-15 KT.  POSITION IS BASED ON LONG LOOP SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAT DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 34W-36W.

W ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 16N MOVING W 20
KT.  THIS IS A WELL-ORGANIZED WAVE THAT HAS A DISTINCTIVE
V-SHAPE ON SATELLITE AND PLENTY OF TSTM ACTIVITY...THOUGH WLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.  SHOWERS AND
TSTM CHANCES IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF
THE LEEWARDS BY TOMORROW.  THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE S
OF 15N.  TUE LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN PUERTO RICO.  A GALE MAY OCCUR NEAR/BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR WED.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 53W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 74W/75W S OF 11N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 74W-78W.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 90W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.  THIS WAVE IS LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR A LARGE BLOWUP OVER TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 18N AND OVER WESTERN YUCATAN TONIGHT.
THESE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
SHORTLY AND DIE OUT OVERNIGHT.  PRESENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 89W-93W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 6N30W 4N40W 6N50W 11N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 12W-19W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 26W-28W.  ALL OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS MENTIONED IN TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SMALL 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR
31N90W.  THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT
ELY FLOW.  CONVECTION PERSISTS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF...AS
WELL AS OVER S LOUISIANA...HAS DISSIPATED.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER W TEXAS
NEAR 31N101W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W
PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY
OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF...TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-78W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... SEE ABOVE.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 81W-85W.  A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN
85W-87W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NW NEAR 20N90W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.  ANOTHER
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
10N65W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE W AT 20 KT.  EXPECT A NEW TROPICAL WAVE TO
ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DOMINATING SURFACE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS 1031 HIGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N45W.  RELATIVELY LIGHT ELY FLOW
WITH FAIR WEATHER IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-68W.  EARLIER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AFRICAN DUST E OF 50W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 56W/57W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 70W WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 71W-74W.  A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N45W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 38W-65W.  A
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 38W.

$$
FORMOSA


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