[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ON TOP OF THIS
WAVE IS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. CYCLONIC FLOW IN PART OF
THE CLOUD FIELD AROUND THE WAVE SHOWS UP IN VISIBLE IMAGERY
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W...AND FROM 12N TO
13N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.

A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 10N...EXITING
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL COLOMBIA
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF 5N IN INTERIOR COLOMBIA BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED AT ALL TO THIS TROPICAL
WAVE. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND IN COASTAL COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 76W AND 82W MOST PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
87W/88W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. ISOLATED CELLS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN CENTRAL NICARAGUA...
FROM BELIZE TO HONDURAS JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THERE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N15W 9N20W 7N24W 7N40W 8N50W 8N56W 9N66W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 6N TO 11N
BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
SOME CELLS IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN 61.5W AND 63.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
7N13W 9N16W 9N19W 8N21W 7N25W 6N32W 4N35W 7N42W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE VICINITY OF A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH STRETCHES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 88W. THIS WHOLE
MASS OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION IS FOUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN WEST TEXAS NEAR 31N101W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF WATERS EAST OF 88W...AND OVER
FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
30N80W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO SURFACE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW AND A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF WATERS NEAR 23N84W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR FORT MYERS
TO THE MELBOURNE FLORIDA AREA ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FLORIDA ARE WEST OF A LINE
FROM 30N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THIS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MAY NOT BE RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTER...ABOUT 175 NM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS ONE LOW
CENTER...ALONG THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR
28N...TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 20N108W...TO 11N102W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N
WEST OF 100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...CUTS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND DIGS
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN RIDGE ALONG
94W/95W COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM ANOTHER RIDGE...FROM NORTH CENTRAL
VENEZUELA TOWARD PUERTO RICO...COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR SURFACE WINDS ANNOUNCES EASTERLY
WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...AND SEAS FROM
10 TO 15 KT...IN THE AREA FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W.
EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS FROM 8 TO 12 FT
IN EASTERLY SWELL ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N WEST OF 65W.
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR EASTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KT
AND SEAS FROM 8 TO 13N FT IN EASTERLY SWELLS FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 65W AND 84W E.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NUMBER ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER NEAR 25N47W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AROUND
THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTH AND WITHIN 150 NM TO
THE SOUTH. A BAND OF MOISTURE IS EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER
WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N40W 20N42W 15N47W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 400 TO 600 NM AWAY FROM
THE AREAS OF MOISTURE AROUND THE 25N47W LOW CENTER. ONE TROUGH
GOES FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N45W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ/TROPICAL WAVES
WEST OF 26W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXITS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...CROSSES FLORIDA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME
OF THIS FLOW MOVES TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN-SEA WINDWARD PASSAGE
TROUGH...AND SOME OF IT MOVES TOWARD THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE 25N47W LOW CENTER. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 25N47W
LOW CENTER...FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 26N27W BEYOND 32N20W. THE SOUTHERN END OF
A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 31N22W BEYOND 33N19W. STRATIFORM
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 32N17W 26N31W 28N40W.

$$
MT

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