[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 47W-54W.  A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE TO THE AFRICAN
COAST.

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 10N MOVING W 15
KT.  LONG-TERM LOOPS SUGGEST THE WAVE IS QUITE WEAK AND IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA... PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 68W-72W.

HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL IS ALONG 86W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT.
LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS BEHIND THIS WAVE.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 81W-89W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 6N30W 7N40W 11N51W 10N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
11W-20W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
27W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MAINLY 10 KT
ELY FLOW.  ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 94W-98W.  ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ADVECTING OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE
ATLANTIC FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 79W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
20N104W MOVING W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 85W
PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  25-30 KT
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-78W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE.  ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
80W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
W OF 80W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.  ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N65W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W AT 20 KT.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LINGERS OVER THE THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 36N48W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 75W.  A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
21N71W.  A SMALL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-66W.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N65W.  A LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N47W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  WLY FLOW IS
N OF 15N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA






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