[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 42W-52W.  A LARGE AREA
OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE TO THE AFRICAN COAST.

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 10N MOVING W
15 KT.  LONG-TERM LOOPS SUGGEST THE WAVE IS QUITE WEAK AND IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA... PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 68W-72W.

HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL IS ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT.
LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS BEHIND THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 77W-79W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 83W-88W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 9N25W 8N35W 11N49W 10N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 5N-8N BETWEEN 11W-19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 25W-27W...
AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 52W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MAINLY 10
KT ELY FLOW.  ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE WITH CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF
90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE W GULF FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 94W-98W...AND FROM 19N-21N
BETWEEN 90W-93W.  ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ADVECTING OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N102W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS ALONG 85W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-78W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE.  ALL CONVECTION NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE HAS NOW DISSIPATED.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
20N85W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 14N65W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE W AT 20 KT.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
ALONG 28N79W 23N81W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
20N-27N BETWEEN 76W-80W.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N48W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF
75W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 21N71W.  A SMALL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-66W.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N65W.  A LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N47W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  WLY FLOW IS
N OF 15N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA





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