[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
BEST WAVE SIGNATURE IS WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 44W-49W.  A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE TO THE AFRICAN COAST.

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 10N MOVING W 15
KT.  LONG-TERM LOOPS SUGGEST THE WAVE IS QUITE WEAK AND IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA... PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 68W-71W.

HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL IS ALONG 82W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT.
LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS BEHIND THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF CUBA.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E HONDURAS
AND E NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 84W-86W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N25W 7N30W 12N47W 10N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 6N-8N BETWEEN 16W-19W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 22W-25W...
AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 36W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N
WITH MAINLY 10 KT ELY FLOW.  ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE WITH
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO W OF 88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
87W-91W.  ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ADVECTING OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC FROM 23N-37N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N101W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS ALONG 86W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-78W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF CUBA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
69W-72W.  ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER E HONDURAS AND E NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 84W-86W.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N87W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.  ANOTHER
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
14N65W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W AT 20
KT.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
ALONG 27N78W 22N80W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 76W-80W.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 32N66W 24N72W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N-32N
BETWEEN 67W-72W.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N51W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 75W.  A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
21N71W.  A SMALL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-66W.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N65W.  A LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N47W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  WLY FLOW IS
N OF 15N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA




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