[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011706
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
BEST WAVE SIGNATURE IS WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 10N MOVING W 15
KT.  LONG-TERM LOOPS SUGGEST THE WAVE IS QUITE WEAK AND IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA... PRODUCING A TSTM OR TWO.

HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM NEAR PANAMA AT 9N79W
NNE THRU CUBA TO JUST E OF ANDROS ISLAND MOVING WNW 15-20 KT.
LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS BEHIND THE WAVE WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 66W-72W AND
OTHER TSTMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 75W-80W PLUS NEAR JAMAICA/THE
CAYMANS.  RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER S
FLORDA LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE AREA MOVES IN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N31W 11N45W 9N60W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 10N W OF 50W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM OF AXIS E OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSISTS IN THE WESTERN
GULF... ASSISTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS DOT THE GULF W OF 90W THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE... NOT RELIEVING THE DROUGHT SITUATION
OVER LOUISIANA.  UPPER RIDGING IS LIMITING MOST OF THE TSTMS IN
THE E GULF SAVE A FEW NEAR S FLORIDA THOUGH THERE ARE PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS.  COMPUTER MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT TOMORROW
WILL BE WETTER THAN TODAY OVER TEXAS AS THE MOISTURE AREA IN THE
W GULF MOVES THROUGH.  THE E GULF SHOULD BECOME WETTER AS WELL
DUE TO THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE HEADING INTO THE
REGION.  MOSTLY ELY WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN TODAY IS THE
STRONG WINDS AS GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE W ATLC AND
COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURES OVER NW COLOMBIA IS LEADING TO THE
HIGH WINDS.  OTHERWISE... SMALL-SCALE RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN
IS IN PLACE THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS DRY DUE TO MID/UPPER
SUBSIDENCE.  FIRST RIDGE IS ALONG ABOUT 82W AND MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 19N ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.  UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 12N70W AND EASTERNMOST UPPER RIDGING IS
FROM 14N63W TO JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS.  ENHANCED CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOULD PERSIST OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS. NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN EARLY MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45W COMES INTO THE
REGION WITH COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG WINDS MIGHT
ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGING IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH AXIS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 31N70W.  DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS ENHANCING TSTMS THAT ARE IN THE NW BAHAMAS.  NARROW
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N65W NNE TO 31N61W WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY DISSIPATED TSTMS.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 65W-70W JUST AHEAD OF THE W ATLC
TROUGH AXIS.  FARTHER E... MID-OCEANIC TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
31N32W TO 18N60W WITH A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS NEAR 21N49W AND
26N44W.  WEAK TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC ALONG 23W N OF 27N WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS.  OTHERWISE THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE RIDGE FROM W MAURITANIA THRU THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
12N40W WESTWARD TO NEAR BARBADOS.  SOME ENHANCEMENT IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE IN THE
ITCZ.. OTHERWISE AFRICAN DUST/DRY AIR COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA E OF 45W WITH SOME ALSO INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
TRADES ARE RATHER ENHANCED IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA DUE TO A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 36N47W AND PRESSURES ARE
MUCH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

$$
BLAKE



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