[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 20N77W TO 26N73W MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN. AS
SUCH...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS N OF 17N TO OVER THE BAHAMAS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N23W 7N40W 9N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 13W-16W...FROM 18W-22W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
8N37W-10N41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 42W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE W GULF IS GENERATING AN AREA OF OVER CLOUDS WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION W OF 89W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W NORTH
CAROLINA TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER COVERING MOST OF THE GULF.
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE E GULF...ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOT THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND COVERS THE AREA W OF 79W. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N FROM 71W-79W. THIS AREA IS RATHER DRY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA W OF 80W...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC.
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 76W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDS FROM 27N70W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS NEAR THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. BROAD
UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 12N41W
EXTENDING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N INTO
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM PUERTO RICO TO 29N65W THEN NE TO BEYOND
33N61W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
27N FROM 65W-70W. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 30N FROM 32W-54W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
28N39W TO A PAIR OF SMALL MID/UPPER LOWS NEAR 26N43W AND 21N50W.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W
EXTENDING W TO 14N26W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 70W
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM 10N-27N E OF 35W
SUPPRESSING THE ITCZ TO THE S AND LIMITING CLOUDS/SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA INCLUDING THE CANARY AND CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE





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