[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010511
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 3N27W 2N45W 1N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 15W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE GULF REGION
INTO THE W ATLC LEAVING THE GULF WITH UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W TO 24N93W. SURFACE
RIDGE IS PUSHING S FROM OVER THE SE US WITH A 1020 MB HIGH
LOCATED OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE S GULF. THUS SOME SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE S GULF...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
INDICATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY BY THU AS YET ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE W GULF. UNTIL THEN...CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES SHIFTS E FROM OVER FAR E VENEZUELA
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG E
TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE FOR FRO THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN
BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 60W WITH
STORM FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE W ATLC OVER BERMUDA EXTENDING SW TO THE N BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N77W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ARE N OF 23W W OF THE COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N
WITH THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM E VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N51W COVERING THE AREA FROM 48W-60W. HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N45W AND COVERS THE AREA E OF 60W. NARROWING
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLC WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N30W SSW OF 10N44W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N23W EXTENDING SW
TO 26N30W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N-23N LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THAT
AREA. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER
AFRICA ALONG 10W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE FAR E ATLC.
DIFFLUENCE IS AIDED BY A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 10N38W
NE TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N13W TO 25N23W.

$$
WALLACE


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