[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250500
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N18W 1N30W 2N41W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 1N4.5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 3.5N. LARGE CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250
NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 31W-48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM
4N-6.5N BETWEEN 50W-52.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE E US TO THE N GULF COAST.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS N OF THE REGION. A PREVIOUS COLD
FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC FROM
32N76W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF NEAR FT
MYERS ALONG 24N89W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 18N93W WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NW ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N82W ALONG 25N89W TO OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF
22N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/MEXICO
AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OUT OF THE GULF LEAVING THE GULF UNDER MODERATE/STRONG N WINDS
WITH THE MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE SW GULF WITH THE RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ENE ACROSS INTO THE W ATLC INCLUDING
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WSW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 22N87W TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N W OF 85W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 83W GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY DRY UPPER AIR OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ENE
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N50W COVERING THE AREA
W OF 44W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR
COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N-30N ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH THE
DRIEST AIR OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 50W-65W INCLUDING THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N43W AND IS KEEPING THE AREA SHOWER FREE. OVER THE E
ATLC...A BROADENING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF 45W TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N18W TO NEAR 26N25W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N14W ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS INLAND OVER AFRICA TO 20N14W. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR...NO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE PRESENT.

$$
WALLACE


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