[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241714
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N18W 2N27W 2N40W 2N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 300
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.  THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 6W-10W AND FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 32W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1014 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
LIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
ALONG 32N81W 27N87W 24N92W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM THERE TO THE MEXICAN COASTLINE ALONG 24N92W
18N94W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WINDS ARE S-SELY AROUND 10-15 KTS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS IS BUILDING IN WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS FROM 15-20 KTS. DESPITE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT
BECOMING STATIONARY...THE GFS FORECASTS THE FRONT TO LEAVE THE
AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. FAIR WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW...CAUSED BY THE CIRCULATION OF A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...DOMINATES THE REGION.
MULTILAYER BROKEN CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD IN THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 87W/88W FROM 16N-22N. BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS WITH ONLY
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS DRIVEN WESTWARD BY MODERATE TRADE WINDS.
THE TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA.
THIS UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. VERY DRY AIR IS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIR WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THANKS TO A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N47W.  IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM A 1000 MB LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG 32N24W 28N30W 26W40W. NO CONVECTION
IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ALONG 16W/17W FROM 23N-35N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NEWARD TO
BEYOND 32N60W COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER
AIR COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N-30N W OF 30W WITH THE DRIEST AIR
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 40W-70W INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS FROM  HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 15N E OF 35W TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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