[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231704
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N28W 2N41W 2N52W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 7W-15W AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
38W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
MISSISSIPPI INTO THE WESTERN GULF TO THE MEXICAN COASTLINE ALONG
29N91W 25N94W 22N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT S-SE WINDS ARE
WIDESPREAD. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE MOSTLY NORTHERLY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FORECASTING THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
TOMORROW AND TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON WED. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...CAUSED BY THE CIRCULATIONS OF A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN...DOMINATES THE GULF. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS
TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 82W-89W. FARTHER EAST...TYPICAL PATCHES OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STREAMING WESTWARD DRIVEN BY MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. GALE FORCE WIND ARE BLOWING NEAR COLUMBIA
BETWEEN 72W-78W. GFS FORECASTS THE TRADE WINDS TO REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR EASTERN CUBA. THIS UPPER
HIGH IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 41N64W
HAS CAUSED SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 30W.
A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N26W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW ALONG 27N25W 22N26W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. QUIET
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE SEWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TOMORROW. FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N W OF 40W WITH THE
DRIEST AIR OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 38W-66W. OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 18N FROM
15W-30W WITH THE AXIS TILTED THROUGH 32N18W TO 22N25W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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