[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W 2N38W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
N OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S
OF 6N W OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N E OF 25W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 48W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SWEEPING EASTWARD FROM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES ACROSS TEXAS/MEXICO AND THE NW GULF. THIS IS A
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE N/CENTRAL US.
THE ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER
CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W TO A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
27N95W CONTINUING TO DIG S OVER E MEXICO MID-WAY BETWEEN TAMPICO
AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS JUST TO THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE NW GULF W OF A
LINE FROM VERACRUZ TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A BAND OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY N OF THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM AN
UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUING N ALONG THE EASTERN US
SEABOARD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF FOR
NOW WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS GULF TODAY CLEARING THE
GULF LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 18N82W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA
COVERING THE AREA INCLUDING THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO. DRY
UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE MUCH OF THE AREA CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING FROM THE RECENT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF W
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF
HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADES ARE NOW DOMINATING THE AREA E OF 80W AND WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ON THU TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W
ATLC W OF 70W...FUNNELING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE E COAST
OF THE US TO N OF 30N W OF 70W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 50W-70W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE WEAKENING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N50W TO
26N55W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 20N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC CENTERED S OF BERMUDA
NEAR 28N66W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO FLORIDA. NARROWING UPPER RIDGE
IS TO THE E OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ALONG 45W WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 20N W OF 36W. AT THE SURFACE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE N OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH OVER THE
AZORES. A TROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS FROM
14N60W NE ALONG 17N46W DIPPING S ALONG 14N35W THAN BACK NE TO
OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N16W.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net