[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N12W 3N30W 3N40W 3N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 12W-30W AND FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 31W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1025 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF AS IT CONTINUES
PUSHING E TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND REMAIN DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF
89W...AS THE HIGH MOVES E INTO THE EASTERN GULF WINDS WILL
SLACKEN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE ENTIRE GULF.  AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE E INTO THE WESTERN
GULF W OF 95W...WHILE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
TIP OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W SW THROUGH JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER NEAR 15N83W AND CONTINUES MOVING SE.
WIND REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.  AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND W OF 76W PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COSTA RICA.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
30N65W 23N70W 19N74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.  SEVERAL SHIPS HAVE MADE REPORTS OF
WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS.  ELSEWHERE...A STRONG 1034 MB HIGH
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED N OF THE
AREA NEAR 33N38W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 22N57W AND E
TO NEAR 31N17W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE E OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM 30N72W AND CONTINUING
S TO NEAR 26N72W.   IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A RIDGE EXTENDS N OF
20N BETWEEN 60W-65W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS FROM 17N-26N
BETWEEN 30W-49W.

$$
JP/DS




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net