[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N15W 5N21W 5N34W THEN S
OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W TO 2S51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
S OF 5N W OF 33W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE TO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF ALONG 28N92W 25N95W 21N97W. A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND WITHIN 120
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...A WEAK 1019 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR 27N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI COASTLINE TO THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD
TO MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD...THE LOW AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH
THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND
BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON WED...DISSIPATING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN. A 1030
MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N101W.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. AT UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N45W 27N57W AND
THE BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 27N57W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
BROKEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE
FRONT. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 33N64W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH IS
PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF
82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE LIMITED TO A SMALL
AREA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 82W-86W. TRADES ARE LIKELY TO SLACKEN
A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EAST OF 70W. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR IS WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF
15N.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N25W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N25W 28N21W
TO 25N20W THEN AS A COLD FRONT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 16N29W
16N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITHIN 400 NM OF THE LOW...ARE
SWIRLING AROUND THE CENTER. THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEST OF 40W. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS FROM
FROM 14N-26N BETWEEN 28W-55W. AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
24N26W. A WESTERLY JET WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 TO 120 KT
IS S OF THE FRONT FROM 12N35W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 25N15W.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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