[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092313
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N25W 2N37W EQ47W. CONVECTION
IS LIMITED ACROSS THE ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FOUND FROM 1S TO 7N BETWEEN 12W-28W. MORE ORGANIZED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING THE BRAZILIAN COAST BETWEEN
43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE...FAIR AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE GULF. A
1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
32N63W. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10-15 KTS ARE BLOWING ACROSS
FLORIDA. WEST OF FLORIDA...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW FROM
10-15 KTS PERSISTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...NEAR 20 KTS...WEST OF 90W AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST ON TUESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE GULF FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO NO BIG
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. AT UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
FROM AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CONTROLS THE
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W THEN CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA. BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TYPICAL COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS NEAR 20 KTS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...PARTICULARLY EAST OF 80W THANKS TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CAUSED BY A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ARE QUICKLY MOVING WESTWARD
DRIVEN BY THE TRADES. SINCE SURFACE RIDGING IS LIKELY TO HOLD
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TRADE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE
TO STRONG TOMORROW. AT UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER
LEVEL AIR EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW 1030 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
34N36W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR 26N25W.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1030 MB HIGH AND THE
1010 MB LOW IS PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 23N20W FLATTENING TO 22N32W.
WIDESPREAD BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW.
A BAND OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
THE LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. GFS DISSIPATES THE
LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE NOGAPS AND UKMET KEEP A
CLOSED CIRCULATION THROUGH 24-36 HOURS. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 10N50W NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. A STRONG UPPER LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N25W...IS WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW TO NEAR 13N42W.
A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET FROM 90-110 KTS EXTENDS FROM 13N38W TO
18N20W THEN CONTINUES OVER AFRICA NEAR 25N5W. ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. THESE WINDS ARE SHEARING
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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