[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 40W...1S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 19W AND 28W...FROM 2N TO
4N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W...FROM THE COAST OF BRAZIL TO 1N BETWEEN
47W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N EAST OF 16W...ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 27W...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER
THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTER
NEAR 31N69W TO 28N75W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 28N85W
TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N94W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TODAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N70W...ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO ITS SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N74W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 16N74W TO 13N80W AND 13N83W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
POSSIBLY LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO SOUTH
OF JAMAICA...AND THEN WESTWARD IN ORDER TO BE OFFSHORE FROM 14N
TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
14N WEST OF 80W TO CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA.
EARLIER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE DIMINISHED BY NOW. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
SEEN FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W IN WESTWARD MOVING
CLOUDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA MOVES EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN..BRINGING AN INCREASE IN THE
TRADE WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM...WHICH IS RIDING
ON TOP OF THE ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT. THE ATLANTIC STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 29N60W TO 20N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT ALONG 30N54W 20N62W. THE CLOUDINESS
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND JET STREAM HAS BEEN DISSIPATING
OR THINNING OUT DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE COMPARATIVELY
SMALLER AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
32N53W 24N61W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N61W
20N72W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS SEEN ON THE 09/0900 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 16N76W TO 25N75W BEYOND 32N55W. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS RANGE
FROM 90 KT TO 120 KT NORTH OF 29N AND THEY TEND TO BE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM BETWEEN 55W AND 63W. ONE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RUNS
FROM A LOW CENTER OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF FRANCE TO A LOW
CENTER NEAR 30N22W. THIS 30N22W LOW CENTER IS PART OF THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH WHICH WAS SEEN 24 HOURS AGO AS IT WAS DIPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. A SURFACE 1011 MB LOW CENTER NEAR
30N19W IS CONNECTED TO AN OCCLUDED FRONT WHICH GOES FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 30N15W. THE COLD FRONT GOES FROM 30N15W TO 25N20W
TO 24N30W TO 25N35W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 26N
TO 34N BETWEEN 12W AND 27W. WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE ARE PRESENT
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. A THICK-ENOUGH CLOUD LINE
EASILY MARKS THE COLD FRONT AT THIS HOUR. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN BETWEEN THIS EASTERN ATLANTIC FRONT AND
THE TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO MORE TO THE WEST. ANOTHER
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS DEVELOPING NEAR 17N44W.
THIS LOW CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
WITHIN AT LEAST 720 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND FROM
6N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

$$
MT


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