[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4.5N10W 4N20W 1N30W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 41W TO 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 7W-13W AND N OF 1N TO THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 4W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
100/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 15W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC...
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N68W ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA THEN STATIONARY TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NICARAGUA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND COVER MUCH OF THE
GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES OFF LOUISIANA...TEXAS...AND MEXICO W
OF 95W. AT UPPER LEVELS...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD HAVING REACHED 19N WITH THE AXIS NOW ALONG THE E COAST
OF THE US. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WITH COLD TEMPERATURES COVERS THE
GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF TONIGHT THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
JAMAICA THEN BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
12N83W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
AROUND 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF CUBA. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...REACHING THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW DOMINATES THE SAME AREA
BUILDING INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDS FROM
OVER S AMERICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN RATHER FAIR WEATHER. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND VERY CLOSE
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME ENTIRELY
STATIONARY FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA BY THIS EVENING THEN
DISSIPATE ON SUN.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM S
AMERICA NEAR 10N60W N OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N53W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 16N FROM 35W-48W. THE REMNANTS OF ZETA IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH WITH A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 25N54.5W.  AT THE SURFACE...A 1033 MB HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 33.5N36W COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N E OF 50W
WITH ONLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. IN THE E TROPICS...
WESTERLY JET REMAINS WITH 70 TO 100 KT WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 17N15W. DRY AIR ALOFT
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N BETWEEN 40W-60W.

$$
GR


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