[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070512
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N20W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
39W TO 2S46W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE FROM 5N14W TO JUST INLAND OVER LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR
6N9W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
2N-7N BETWEEN 10W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 6N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
24W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC...
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N78W. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG BOTH SIDES
OF THE FRONT TO OVER CUBA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W
OF THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND COVER MUCH OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES OFF LOUISIANA...TEXAS...AND MEXICO W OF 94W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD HAVING
REACHED 20N WITH THE AXIS NOW ALONG THE E COAST STATES. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR COVERS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS
BEING DRAWN INTO THE W ATLC. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE BUT CAN STILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC BEFORE WEAKENING ON SUN INTO MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N78W
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 15N82W BRINGING A CHANGE IS THE WEATHER FOR THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE AREA FROM 70W-83W WITH COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF 83W. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW
DOMINATES THE SAME AREA. RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN HAS NARROWED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM DEEP IN THE
TROPICS OFF THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 7N55W N JUST E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN
RATHER MILD WEATHER. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUN WITH LINGERING MOISTURE KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N JUST E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N60W.
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA W OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 16N FROM
40W-50W. THE REMNANTS OF ZETA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N51W. E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 19N E
OF 25W WITH A WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGHS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N E OF 48W WITH
ONLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SWEEPING E TO 40W. IN THE E
TROPICS...WESTERLY JET REMAINS WITH 70 TO 90 KT WINDS EXTENDING
FROM 14N35W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 16N16W. DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES
THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 26N BETWEEN 45W-65W.

$$
WALLACE


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