[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.2N 48.7W AT 06/0300 UTC
MOVING NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS EXPOSED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY SHEAR AND IMPINGING
DRY UPPER AIR. RAGGED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE
AREA FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 41W-49W. GRADUAL WEAKENING REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N21W 2N29W 3N37W S OF THE
EQUATOR TO 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-7N BETWEEN 28W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 6W-28W AND WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 6W-9W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF NOW EXTENDING
THROUGH NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W ALONG 26N85W 22N95W TO S MEXICO
NEAR 18N95W CREATING GALE FORCE SURFACE WINDS W OF THE FRONT S
OF 22N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ARE S OF 22N W OF 94W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SE FROM COVERING
THE US FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES EASTWARD AND THE GULF N OF
25N. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON ACROSS FLORIDA WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS FAR
S AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER-
THAN-AVERAGE TRADES DUE TO A LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W
ATLC WITH A LITTLE CONVERGENCE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 80W AND S OF 18N W OF 86W.
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE REGION DUE TO AN
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM DEEP IN THE TROPICS OFF THE COAST
OF S AMERICA NEAR 2N44W NW ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO OVER
CUBA NEAR 23N80W. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF WILL ENTER
THE NW AREA EARLY FRIDAY INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NE TO COVER
THE W ATLC W OF 57W WITH A WEAK SURFACE 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N65W
GENERATING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. STRONG
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 20N FROM
46W-57W. ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS TRAILING THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N54W ALONG 25N58W TO 22N68W.
ZETA IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL E OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY N OF 25N FROM 45W-50W. E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ANOTHER
RIDGE BETWEEN 28W-45W WITH QUIET WEATHER BENEATH THE RIDGE. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 28W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE N PORTION OF THE AREA. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS...STRONG WESTERLY JET WITH 75 KT WINDS ALONG
16N55W ALONG 13N35W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 16N16W WHERE THE WINDS
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 100 KT. DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA S
OF 20N W OF 30W. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM
OVER THE AZORES TO NEAR 20N40W WITH MODERATE/STRONG TRADES E OF
40W.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net