[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA AT 04/0900 UTC IS NEAR 22.1N
43.1W...OR ABOUT 1325 MILES...2130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS NOW SE OF ZETA AND MOVING E. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS AGAIN PRODUCING SHEAR ON THE STORM AND CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED IN THE PAST THREE HOURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25W BETWEEN 41W-44W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N25W 4N40W EQ50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
EQ-3N BETWEEN 4W-9W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 20W-24W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 27W-30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 33W-42W...AND FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 43W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 25N85W...DELINEATED BY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N91W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 26N.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE NOTED INLAND ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-99W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING
IS OVER THE GULF.  WINDS ARE FROM THE SW OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W.  WINDS ARE FROM THE W OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  MOISTURE
IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N AND W OF 90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER THE NW GULF AT THE 24 HOUR POINT...AND FOR UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW TO DOMINATE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS POSITIONED E/W ALONG 13N...PUSHING BANDS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND
FLOW.  EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO BE FROM THE NE AT 15-20 KT W OF
70W.  ALSO EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N AND W OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N67W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N.  A
SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. T.S. ZETA IS FURTHER
E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVING SW.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 50W.  A
SMALL UPPER LOW IS SE OF ZETA NEAR 20N40W.  WESTERLY FLOW IS
OVER THE TROPICS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 20W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net