[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS NEAR 24.5N 39.7W OR ABOUT 1565 MILES...
2520 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
02/0900 UTC. ZETA IS MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECAST/ ADVISORY LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  ZETA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY DESPITE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPACTING ITS
CIRCULATION. THE SHEAR IS RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26N
BETWEEN 38W-40W.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N30W 3N40W 3N51W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 20W-37W...AND
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
15-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED THROUGHOUT THE GULF.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GEORGIA N OF 31N
DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF.  BANDS OF MOISTURE ARE PRODUCING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 24N.  EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W GULF THIS MORNING AND EXTEND FROM N
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA DUE TO THE
COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES OF 20-25 KT ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PATCHY AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
QUICKLY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
E OF 80W.  SHOWERS ARE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
S OF 14N AND E OF 67W DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR
12N70W.  THIS UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE DRIEST
AIR EAST OF 75W.  EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N67W.  A FAIRLY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING STRONGER THAN
USUAL TRADES IN THE TROPICS FROM 10N-22N W OF 50W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE N OF 24N AND W OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
TROPICAL STORM ZETA...THE 27TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2005
YEAR...AND THE THIRD TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OCCURRING
IN JANUARY REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.  ZETA IS BEING SHEARED...HOWEVER...CONVECTION REMAINS
NEAR THE WARM CORE CENTER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZETA IS
EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW WITH
ZETA IS MOSTLY OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE TROPICS ARE WESTERLIES FROM 10N-20N...E OF 50W TO AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA



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