[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272256
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N18W EQ25W 1.5S35W 3S42W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 3S-1N
BETWEEN 29W-49W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO MEXICO
AND THE CENTRAL U.S. W OF 85W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES EAST OF
FLORIDA IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 93W. A 1028 MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED
OVER THE FLA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER...ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS...AND GENERALLY EASTERLY SFC FLOW FROM 10-15 KT
COVERS THE GULF. SE TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXISTS W OF 93W.
THE BREEZY EASTERLIES ARE CAUSING AN UPSLOPING FLOW OVER THE
MTNS OF S MEXICO BANKING CLOUDS AGAINST THE TOPOGRAPHY.
ONE MORE RELATIVELY COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN GULF
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A QUICK WARM UP ON WED AS SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION. FAIR WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR MUCH
OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS
WESTWARD COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WHERE MAINLY S
UPPER WINDS ARE FOUND. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NW COAST OF HONDURAS. THIS
PART OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND BECOMING
SLOWLY DETACHED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF CLOUDS. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE SEA AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY
UPPER LEVEL AIR DOMINATES THE REGION EXCEPT FOR ABOVE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS WASHING OUT AND WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE TONIGHT LEAVING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA W OF 55W NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR LIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N54W
25N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL SSW JET WITH
WINDS OF 90KT-110KT EXTENDS FROM 25N57W TO BEYOND 32N NEAR 48W.
THIS JET HAS A SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH WHICH LIES ALONG
54W/55W FROM 25N-30N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN 46W-55W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N. GFS FORECASTS THE
FRONT TO WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AND LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK. A BROAD AMPLIFIED RIDGE COVERS THE AREA
FROM 25W-55W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES E OF 50W BETWEEN 6N-22N
ALLOWING ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. A SURFACE NEARLY
STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 20N35W. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH LIES EAST OF 25W. AT THE SFC A GALE 1001 MB LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 35N18W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG
26N19W AND THEN BECOMES A DYING FRONT TO 22N34W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITHIN 350 NM OF THE LOW...ARE SWIRLING AROUND THE
CENTER. THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THE CENTER FROM
29N-36N BETWEEN 11W-14W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE
TO THE E/NE AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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