[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W EQ30W 2S40W 2S46W.
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. MORE IMPRESSIVE
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 2E
BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 5N AND ALSO OVER INLAND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO N OF 23N E OF 93W. AS OF 2100 UTC...AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 994 MB STORM LOW NEAR 34N67W ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 27N76W 22N85W TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THE STATIONARY
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE N OF 26N ALONG THE TOPOGRAPHY.
BROKEN CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY
ALONG AND WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. MIAMI AND KEY WEST
DOPPLER RADARS SHOW A FEW LINES OF WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SEWARD IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BEHIND THE FRONT...A
1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS IS
USHERING IN COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DRIVEN BY NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS FROM 15-25 KT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR ABOVE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHORTLY CLEAR THE GULF LEAVING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MON AND TUES BEFORE A QUICK WARM
UP OCCURS ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLIES BECOME ESTABLISHED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN
WESTWARD BY WEAKENING TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. THE COLD FRONT IN
THE W ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS APPROACHING W CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS JUST AHEAD AND
ALONG THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHORTLY MOVE INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH IT. GFS
FORECASTS THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SE NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT N-NE WINDS FROM 15-25 KT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...NEAR THE BOUNDARY...OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF  DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC E
OF 60W. A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF 48W...AT THE SFC...A WEAK
1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N48W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIES
IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLANTIC N OF 22N FROM 28W-48W. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N29W 23N40W 20N50W AND THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYER
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 175 NM OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 28N. EAST OF 28W...A
BROAD MID-UPPER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WITH A 1018
MB SFC HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N24W. FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC E OF 60W...EXCEPT
FOR ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS FROM
7N-19N EAST OF 50W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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