[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N6W 4N14W 2N20W S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
1N W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM S OF THE E OF 5W TO
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N W OF 80W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1007 MB LOW IN THE W
ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W INTO THE GULF ALONG
24N93W THEN S TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ AND THE
TYPICAL STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUES ACROSS
THE GULF LIMITING CONVECTION TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE
FRONT WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N85W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
29N81W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERING THE GULF W OF A LINE
FROM 27N82W 22N91W TO OVER MEXICO NEAR 18N93W AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF 93W. BROAD
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC
IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE GULF ON MON CLEARING THE GULF FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC
GIVING THE AREA E TO SE UPPER FLOW. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE TRADES HAVE
WEAKEN AND THE GALE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS DOTTING THE AREA. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WHEN THE COLD FRONT IN THE
GULF MOVES SE GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN SOME TIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND
32N71W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 55W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB
HIGH IS LOCATED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N62W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N FROM 32W-55W. A STORM FORCE
SURFACE LOW IS WELL N OF THE REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING SW ALONG
22N50W THEN W TO 20N63W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N AND BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 32W. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED WSW OF CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
25N23W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS
MOST OF THE ATLC...THUS CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE INSIGNIFICANT OUTSIDE
OF THE AREA OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

$$
WALLACE



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