[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241654
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W EQ17W 1.5S25W 2S36W 3S39W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 400 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 23W. WEST OF 23W...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY WITHIN 250 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. AS OF 1500
UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
25N87W THEN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ALONG 25N87W 27N93W SSWARD
TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N98W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY ON THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE MAINLY EASTERLY NEAR 15-20 KT
WITH CONSIDERABLE MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KT WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS. A LINE OF BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO NEAR
17N94W TO 22N94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN
THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING WSW FLOW
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 26N. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND A 80
KT-100 KT WESTERLY JET LIES N OF 26N. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT...CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK 1020 MB SFC HIGH JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN S. AMERICA IS GENERATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRAD CAUSING MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR 20-25 KT AND IN
SOME PLACES 25-30 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE OFF THE COAST OF COLUMBIA AND PANAMA. SMALL PATCHES OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
MOVING WESTWARD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG MID-UPPER HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS PRODUCING VERY DRY UPPER
LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR COLUMBIA
AND MODERATE/STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS
...THEREAFTER A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN SUNDAY
NIGHT SLACKENING THE TRADES AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG 977 MB LOW WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS NEAR 40N53W AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N57W 28N68W TO S
FLORIDA. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE FRONT E OF 70W. WEST OF 70W...CLOUDS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND DIFFUSE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
THE STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE ATLANTIC
MOSTLY S OF 25N W OF 60W GENERATING VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 23N64W. IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 32N30W 15N45W 8N55W.
AN ASSOCIATED DYING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N32W
27N42W...ONLY A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS ARE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N20W COVERS THE
AREA PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND W
AFRICA PUSHING THE ITCZ MOSTLY BELOW THE EQUATOR. A WEAKENING
60KT-80KT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET EXTENDS FROM 12N40W TO
20N23W TO W AFRICA. CONSIDERABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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