[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N15W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 20W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA S OF 2N ACROSS THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GULF REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC INCLUDING THE SE US. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS S GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
PANAMA CITY W ALONG 29N90W TO INLAND OVER THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
29N96W THEN S TO THE RIO GRAND. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST E
OF LOUISIANA. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES THEN
BE PUSHED BACK INTO THE GULF LATE IN THE WEEK TO OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W
WHILE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE AREA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS EXIST
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...ONLY WIDELY
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED. TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY TUE AND IS NOW BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO SOUTH AMERICA AND TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF
60W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS W ALONG 32N77W TO OVER S GEORGIA. A PAIR OF WEAK 1022 MB
HIGHS ARE IN THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC...CENTERED NEAR 27N72W AND
29N49W SEPARATED BY A EQUALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N60W
TO 29N63W. REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N44W SW
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FAR E CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING SW TO 25N46W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE E ATLC
S OF 22N E OF 50W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA WITH AN UPPER AXIS
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICS NEAR 3N38W N TO
22N35W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
EXTENDING FROM 13N54W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 2N55W.
THIS IS GENERATING OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 48W-57W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
15N E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1026 MB HIGH ESE OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE


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