[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N1W 1N9W 2N20W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 25W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
1W-9W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 11W-18W. SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA S
OF 6N E OF 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GULF REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W NNE
ACROSS FLORIDA  INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
AIR DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR PENSACOLA SW ALONG 28N90W OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N96W
THEN S ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO NEAR 18N95W THE TURNING
SHARPLY AND DISSIPATING N ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
N FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST. REMAINDER OF THE GULF
HAS CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATED OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER
THE N GULF FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 78W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH THE DRIEST AIR FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THEN
BE BELOW GALE FORCE BUT REMAIN STRONG. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...ONLY WIDELY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND BE IN THE SE
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC
W OF 65W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A 1011 MB LOW
CENTERED N O9F THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG
32N69W TO 29N77W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 30N W OF 60W TO INLAND OVER SE US. A
PAIR OF WEAK 1022 MB HIGHS ARE IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC...OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...AND 28N59W RESPECTIVELY. REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W SW OVER
PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N41W EXTENDING SW TO 25N52W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 23N60W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N40W TO 24N51W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N48W TO BEYOND
32N40W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC INTO THE E ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICS
NEAR 4N44W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
EXTENDING FROM 12N56W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 2N57W.
THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 8N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
50W-57W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 16N E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
SE OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE



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