[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N30W 1N40W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 1N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN A 90 NM OF 6N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO/FAR W ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N70W ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA TO 27N90W AND THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD
TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 21N97W AND THEN TURNS NORTHWARD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO TO 25N102W TO 32N107W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED N AND W OF THE FRONT AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO THE E AND SE. AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND FAR W
ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF AND
CONTINUING TO THE S ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
SECTION ALSO COVERS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN.
FURTHER TO THE E A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A JET CUTTING ACROSS THE FAR SE
PART. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE ARE IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AND EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN 30 HOURS.

REMAINDER ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W TO 24N55W TO JUST E OF
PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 30N44W AND MOVING E
15 TO 20 KNOTS. A JET ALOFT IS POSITIONED FROM NEAR 13N62W TO
21N50W TO 23N35W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS.
NO PRONOUNCED FEATURES ALOFT ARE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

$$
CAB

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