[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2S TO 1N BETWEEN 3E AND 2W...AND
JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2S TO 5N BETWEEN 1W AND 21W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
1030 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N70W...TO
31N78W TO 29N85W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...TO 25N91W IN THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N97W. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE LATEST CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM
16/0900 UTC SHOW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
GULF WATERS. DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR A BIT
OF CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...JUST
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BARELY REACHES THE
SOUTHEASTERN END OF CUBA...AND IS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEATHER AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH
MOST PROBABLY IS THE REMNANT OF THE OLD SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 11N TO 16N FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
NICARAGUA TO COASTAL HONDURAS...TOTALLY INLAND. THE MIDDLE LEVEL
FLOW...ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AT
16/0900 UTC...IS PURELY EASTERLY EAST OF 70W AND SOUTH OF 15N
WEST OF 70W. THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PURELY
EASTERLY. A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG 14N78W 12N80W TO PANAMA AT 9N80W. THIS
TROUGH ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE LATEST CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA AND THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 34N62W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM
THIS LOW CENTER TO 25N68W...ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N60W 22N70W TO
20N74W NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N55W 26N65W 21N76W WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 29N59W 33N55W WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN THAT
AREA. ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...FROM
34N70W TO THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRAIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW NOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO
THE EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 33N31W. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER...IS FOUND FROM 10N TO 25N
BETWEEN 33W AND 51W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MULTIPLE CYCLONIC
SWIRLS EXIST IN THIS LARGER AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN MOROCCO/ALGERIA
TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 16N21W...IN BETWEEN MAURITANIA AND
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT



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