[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
7N11W 3N20W 2N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W TO 1S46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N
BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD AIR HAS USHERED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION. COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER MOST OF THE GULF EAST OF 95W. SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST NEAR 15 TO 25 KT. A 1031 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS RIGHT UP
AGAINST THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N97W. FAIR AND COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHTS SINCE 2003 OVER MUCH
OF FLORIDA. MILDER RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE
DRIEST AIR NORTH OF 26N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
IT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 25N70W...TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
TO THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE FRONT CONTINUES FROM CUBA
TO CENTRAL JAMAICA TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND
WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE COSTA RICA/
PANAMA BORDER TO EASTERN JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT ARE USHERING IN COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN TO THE
WEST/WEST-NORTHWEST BY MODERATE TRADE WINDS EAST OF THE FRONT.
A LARGE AND STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG A LINE
FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EAST OF THE FRONT. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AND EXTEND FROM 32N55W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND FINALLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AFTER THAT...AND IT IS LIKELY
TO DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 28N
WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FROM 25 KT TO 35 KT AND SEAS REACHING 13 FT. FAIR WEATHER COVERS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC THANKS TO A 1031 MB SFC
HIGH NEAR 34N38W. A RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO
29N46W 27N53W 25N62W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS HIGH
CENTER IS PRODUCING ABOVE AVERAGE TRADEWINDS ACROSS A GOOD PART
OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N24W TO
17N47W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE FROM 10N TO 30N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W. A 70 KT TO 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET
STREAM EXTENDS FROM 10N31W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO WESTERN
AFRICA. CONSIDERABLE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD...EAST THE JET STREAM. THE ITCZ IS FAR TO THE
SOUTH WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION.

$$
MT



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