[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122305
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 2N30W EQ40W 1S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS E
OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD AIR HAS USHERED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION. COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF E OF 95W.  GALES HAVE LEFT THE
AREA AS THE RECORD BREAKING E COAST NOR'EASTER DEPARTS THE
NORTHEAST U.S.  SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY N/NW NEAR 15-25 KT. A
1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER N MEXICO NEAR
25N99W. FAIR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN FACT...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT MAY BE
THE COLDEST NIGHTS SINCE 2003 OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA. AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EASTWARD...MILDER RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW FLORIDA INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. DRY
UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS ACORSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE DRIEST
AIR N OF 26N.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC W OF 60W...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROPOGATE SOUTHEASTWARD. AS OF
2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N67W AND
EXTENDS THRU CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDUARAS. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG THE TOPOGRAPHY FROM HONDUARAS EASTWARD TO
MEXICO NEAR 16N93W. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST THICK LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ABOUT 300 NM ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20-25 KTS ARE USHERING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN W/WNW BY MODERATE
TRADES E OF 78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE STRONG MID/UPPER
HIGH LIES FROM NW VENEZULEA TO JUST E OF BERMUDA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION SE OF THE FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SE TOMORROW AND
EXTEND FROM 32N56W THRU THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SE NICARAGUA.
THERAFTER...THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC
THANKS TO A 1030 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 33N39W. THE PRESSURE GRAD FROM
THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING ABOVE AVERAGE TRADES OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 60W.  A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N35W TO 27N42W. ONLY BROKEN CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE SFC
TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES
FROM 19N32W TO 7N50W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF THE TROUGH THRU
THE CARIBBEAN S OF 24N.  MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE E ATANTIC
WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF 14N. A 70-90 KT SWLY JET EXTENDS
FROM 10N31W TO ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO W AFRICA.
CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STREAMING
NEWARD E OF THE JET AXIS. THE ITCZ IS FAR TO THE SOUTH WITH THE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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