[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 1N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-12W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 26W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER ALABAMA NEAR
32N87W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT
23N98W AND CONTINUES INTO N MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
24N100W 30N108W.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
N FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA FROM
29N-34N BETWEEN 83W-89W.  20 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD
FRONT WHILE 20 KT SLY WINDS ARE S OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARDS THE E.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...  WLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM
OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N.  EXPECT S FLORIDA TO
EXPERIENCE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CONVECTION EARLY SUN
MORNING.  THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN EXPERIENCE COLD
20-25 KT NLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT...LOCATED JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA...IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THIS FRONT HAS MOVED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...HOWEVER GFS FORECASTS THE FRONT TO LIFT
OUT OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD BY 20-25 KT EASTERLY TRADES.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO
BELIZE WITH CONVECTION BY SUN MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N67W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N43W TO 28N50W 23N60W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS
FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N42W.  A 1008 MB LOW
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N16W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 20N17W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W.
WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA



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