[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
6N7W 5N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 46W...TO 1S50W
IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND
18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 37W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF 4N40W 5N46W 5N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W...COURTESY OF A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS TO FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...STEMMING FROM A SOUTH CAROLINA 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 32N60W TO 27N70W...THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 24N ALONG 75W TO THE WATERS JUST OFF CUBA
NEAR 21N79W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N79W TO
WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N89W. ONE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N62W 25N68W
22N72W MARKED BY A LINE OF CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS ALONG 31N71W 27N78W ALSO MARKED BY A LINE OF
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IN MOST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF WATERS FROM 23N TO 28N WEST OF 94W.
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO FROM
JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 23N99W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 24N ALONG
75W TO THE WATERS JUST OFF CUBA NEAR 21N79W. A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N79W TO WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N89W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
TO INTERIOR MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N...AND THEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TOWARD JAMAICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS
SOUTHEAST OF 20N62W 16N70W 12N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE REST OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTION TOWARD THE MONA
PASSAGE. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL BROKEN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THE FLORIDA
TROUGH...STRETCHING FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 30N45W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS ITS ORIGINS
FROM A LOW CENTER...ABOUT 200 NM NORTH OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
THROUGH 31N19W TO 14N28W ABOUT 200 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT GOES FROM AN OCCLUDED FRONT
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH 31N14W TO 25N20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N24W 28N20W
BEYOND 31N18W. A SURFACE 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
26N48W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN
BETWEEN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SYSTEM AND THE FRONTS WEST OF 60W.

$$
MT

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