[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon Feb 6 11:30:29 CST 2006


AXNT20 KNHC 061729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N30W 1.5N51W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 35W AND 60 NM OF
AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W.  WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-7.5N
BETWEEN 10W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE N OF 29N
BETWEEN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA AND 89W.  MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE IS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 15Z IS NEAR THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER SSW APPROACHING BROWNSVILLE THEN WESTWARD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH A LARGER AREA OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N W
OF 87W.  THESE CLOUDS TRAIL BACK INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BUT
SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA...COURTESY OF A 1024 MB HIGH SITTING NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.   THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING SE AND BE APPROACHING S FLORIDA BY LATE TOMORROW.  ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MOSTLY DRY ZONAL
CONDITIONS ALOFT PROVIDING NO SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE LIFT.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM 31N62W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN
STATIONARY THRU SE CUBA BETWEEN THE CAYMANS/JAMAICA CONTINUING
INTO N-CENTRAL HONDURAS.  IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE FRONT IS
BECOMING STATIONARY AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOW PARALLELING THE
FRONT FROM SW TO NE.  A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDINESS ABOUT 240-300
NM IS NEAR THE ENTIRE FRONT ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE W
ATLC.  A FEW TSTMS ARE AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT WITHIN
90 NM OF 17N83W.  MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL OF THE FRONT SHOULD GET
STUCK IN THE NW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN
MOSTLY OVER WATER BUT ALSO NEAR THE CAYMANS AND HONDURAS.  WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON WED.  IN THE E
CARIBBEAN...UPPER RIDGE HAS SLID EASTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY.. NOW
ALIGNED FROM N-CENTRAL VENEZUELA THRU THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
BEYOND 31N55W.  MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADES DOMINATE THE
CENTRAL/E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL PASSING TRADEWIND
SHOWERS.  THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN LOOKS FRONT-FREE FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS COVERED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
MID-LATITUDES RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALONG 30N50W TO 25N62W.
FARTHER E... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ...
ENTERING THE NE ATLC AROUND 31N22W TO 25N25W DISSIPATING TO
22N30W.  AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 28N.  IN MID/UPPER LEVELS..
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXISTS.. WITH A NARROW TROUGH OVER THE ATLC...
FROM 32N27W SSW TO 22N31W CONTINUING SW TO A LARGE SEMI-CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH TO 15N45W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES FROM 40W-60W
FROM 8N-21N.  THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SEPARATE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PART AND FORM A DEEP-LAYERED CUTOFF LOW NW OF
CANARY ISLANDS.  UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLC ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE W COAST OF
AFRICA WITH HEALTHY ITCZ TSTMS.  PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING
FUNNELED FROM A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET FROM NE BRAZIL NEAR
1.5N51W NE ACROSS THE CAPE VERDES.  TRADES ARE AT NEAR-NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE W ATLC BUT REDUCED IN THE E ATLC DUE TO THE
FRONT'S PRESENCE.  BELOW AVERAGE TRADES SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE E
ATLC FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE CUTOFF LOW FORMS WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK.

$$
BLAKE

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