[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 4N24W 3N32W 4N42W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S
OF THE AXIS FROM 26W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 34W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E US AND
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 23N E OF 94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE GULF IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE W GULF WITH A 1022 MB
HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N92W. THIS HAS USHERED
IN CLEAR SKIES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS.
ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATE MON INTO TO TUE
WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND EXIT THE GULF ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N67W NNE OVER PUERTO RICO INTO THE W ATLC.
SW UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE TO THE W
OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD AREA AHEAD OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO HONDURAS NEAR
15N88W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N80W TO
19N78W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY UPPER AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE W OF 68W. WEAK TO
MODERATE E TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BUT WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N74W EXTENDING OVER
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC OVER
PUERTO RICO NNE TO BEYOND 32N61W COVERING THE AREA W OF 55W.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W
WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 20N42W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N27W EXTENDING SW TO 27N29W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 22N35W. DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ATLC S OF 24N...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N
FROM 37W-65W AND OVER THE FAR NE ATLC N OF 24N E OF 23W.

$$
WALLACE



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