[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM TO THE NORTH OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-25W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR 94W. ASSOCIATED LOW SURFACE PRESSURE EXISTS IN
THE AREA. AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1004 MB LOW IS OFF THE TEXAS COAST
NEAR 27N96W. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE
EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N87W TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. THIS
SQUALL LINE IS SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD DROPPING HEAVY RAINFALL
IN ITS PATH. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. S-SSW SURFACE FLOW FROM 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE GULF.
CONSIDERABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NEWARD FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO FLORIDA. DRIER UPPER AIR EXISTS W OF
90W N OF 23N. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEVELOPING STRONG COLD
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS FAIRLY QUICKLY SEWARD CROSSING MOST OF
THE AREA BY LATE SAT. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN N OF
22N. BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPLYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION EAST OF 83W.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. TRADEWINDS NEAR 15-20 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W.  15-25 KT SE FLOW IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. TYPICAL PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SEA AND LAND AREAS AND
DRIVEN WESTWARD BY THE TRADES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 65W.
AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 9N65W.  UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW LIES
WEST OF THE AXIS WITH WNW FLOW EAST OF THE AXIS.  BANDS OF
BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SFC HIGH TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SO NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE
FOR THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN
LATE SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N62W SUPPLYING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FROM 50W-70W. A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM A
STRONG 982 MB LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N43W
27N47W 25N55W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N 0F 28N
EXTEND WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1025
MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 32N25W. THIS HIGH IS CAUSING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER FROM 35W EASTWARD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN FROM 50W-80W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE W OF 65W.  AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 40W-55W N OF 25N. S OF 25N AND E OF 55W...NEARLY
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT N OF 10N. NEARLY ALL OF THE ATLANTIC E
OF 50W IS RAIN FREE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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