[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SWATH OF AFRICAN DUST. AS
SUCH...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS POOR WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 9N FROM 37W-46W. POSITION BASED
PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W/75W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 87W S OF 18N MOVING W
10-15 KT. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE IS S OF THE AREA
OVER THE E PACIFIC. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N21W 7N41W 6N60W. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
15W-17W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W-32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 20W-26W AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA AND
SIERRA LEONE FROM 7N-11N. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 5N E OF 20W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W W OF 32W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAR MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS A SHARP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. STRONG
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N GULF N OF 26N E OF 93W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 25N E OF 85W TO THE
E COAST OF FLORIDA. THE COMPLEX SYSTEM IS EVOLVING INTO A MORE
SIMPLIFIED PATTERN OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1011
MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MEANDERING ALONG
THE N GULF COAST INLAND ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES THROUGH A
1004 MB LOW ALONG THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND WILL REMAIN IN
THE GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH WED. FURTHER EAST... DEEP-LAYERED
SW FLOW IS PRODUCING MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE E GULF ACROSS
AND FLORIDA. THIS FLOW/MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH THIS
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SLOWLY E REACHING
APPROXIMATELY 90W BY TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL ON WED. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE E HALF OF THE
GULF AND FLORIDA SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N82W WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL TO W
CARIBBEAN FROM 74W-82W. THIS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. FURTHER W...DEEP-LAYERED S
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER
THE W GULF WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA AS THE GULF TROUGH MOVES E DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE IS A SECONDARY SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA E OF 70W. THE PLUME EXTENDS ESSENTIALLY ALL THE WAY FROM W
AFRICA TO CENTRAL AMERICA SO EXPECT HAZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS AMPLIFIED FROM THE W CARIBBEAN N ALONG
80W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS WITH DOWNSTREAM BROAD BUT
WEAK TROUGHING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC BROAD COVERING THE AREA
FROM 26W-65W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 19N44W WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 20N60W N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN IS
PRODUCING INCREASING DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE AND FAVORING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
OVER THE W ATLC AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF
PUSHES E TO OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING S TO 29N51W
THEN W AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC TO THE 1011 MB
LOW OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N42W SSW TO 22N52W. OVER THE
FAR E ATLC...RIDGING EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER W AFRICA NW TO
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BREAKDOWN DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WELL-DEFINED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM AFRICA W WITH AN UPPER HIGH
DEVELOPING ALONG 20W ON WED. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO PARTIALLY DISRUPT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CURRENTLY...MEAN RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM A 1032 MB JUST E OF OF THE AZORES SW ALONG 32N32W TO 25N41W
BRIDGING ACROSS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC W
TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS. S OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES
PREVAIL WITH AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST SPANNING THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY S OF 25N TO
THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
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