[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 24 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NEW TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EXHIBITING PROBABLY THE BEST
SIGNATURE SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH A CIRCULATION PRIMARILY IN
THE MID LEVELS ROLLING W OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU. BOTH THE
BAMAKO AND DAKAR UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE IS
ABOVE 850 MB AND DOES NOT REACH THE SFC AT THE MOMENT. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...ALL DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS RE-LOCATED ALONG 50W/51W S OF 13N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED
EXTENDING NE OF FRENCH GUIANA SO THE WAVE IS PUSHED AHEAD BASED
ON THE LOW-LEVEL TURNING. THE POSITION SEEMS O.K. GIVEN THAT
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME THERE WAS A SEPARATE CIRCULATION NOTED W
OF THE WAVE POSITION (INDICATING THAT IT COULD HAVE BEEN PUSHED
AHEAD EARLIER). ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE AXIS FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 49W-52W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W S OF 14N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE WAVE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS AMPLITUDE...AND
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH CONTINUITY AND SATELLITE HOVMOELLER
DIAGRAMS SUPPORT A POSITION NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
69W-75W...BUT THIS IS MORE OF A FUNCTION OF LOW-LEVEL ELY AND
WLY WINDS CONVERGING N OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N18W 8N26W 5N38W 9N49W...THEN ALONG
5N53W 8N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM
OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 150
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG OVER
FAR NRN BRAZIL NEAR THE GUYANA/VENEZUELA BORDERS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FLATTENING UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO REST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM JACKSONVILLE FL SW
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROF...AND THIS HAS TRANSLATED
INTO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE CONTROL OF WEAK HIGH PRES. AN
AREA OF SMOKE IS LINGERING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N W
OF 90W DUE TO FIRES ALONG THE CAMPECHEN COAST AND VISIBILITIES
AT SOME OF THE COASTAL STATIONS ARE AS LOW AS 4 MILES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT ALTHOUGH MOISTURE SEEMS RATHER LIMITED SO DON'T
EXPECT ANY KIND OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
SHOWERS ARE MORE PROBABLE TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS
THE JUICIER AIR OVER S/CNTRL FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES...ANALYZED AT ABOUT 1011 MB...IS
CENTERED JUST SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W AND IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY TO THE ENE TOWARDS HAITI. A SFC TROF EXTENDS S OF THE LOW
TO NEAR 12N77W AND ALSO EWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES HAS INITIATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-18.5N BETWEEN 72.5W-76W.
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY JUST S OF HAITI BUT IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD BEGIN TO
SPREAD INLAND AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY TO THE NE. THEREFORE...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL
THE LOW DISSIPATES N OF HISPANIOLA ON WED. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED S OF THE ISLAND NEAR 16N70W IS PUMPING SWATHS
OF MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE KEEPING THE E CARIBBEAN
MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE ALLOWED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
OVER MOST OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN ANGUILLA AND ST. LUCIA/
BARBADOS. IN ADDITION...THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC SFC TROF IS
KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING FROM PUERTO RICO TO
THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
EXTREMELY WEAK SFC FLOW IS LOCATED OVER THE W PART OF THE ATLC
BASIN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE
SE U.S. COAST AND HIGH PRES WITH ONLY A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 1012 MB
IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 25N66W. ZONAL FLOW HAS TAKEN CONTROL IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM CUBA NEWD ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS...AND THE LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR THAT WAS E OF
FLORIDA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED E FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 38W-62W. THE
DRY AIR IS SURGING EWD BEHIND A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF ALONG
32N38W 23N50W...WHICH IS INCIDENTALLY FUELING THE 1000 MB GALE
LOW NEAR 30N41W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW
UNDER THE STRONGEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE N OF 26N BETWEEN 32W-37W. A
SFC TROF EXTENDS SW OF THE LOW TO 26N41W 22N50W 18N63W WITH
OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 150 NM TO THE SE BETWEEN
51W-56W. DOWNSTREAM...A SECOND SHARPER UPPER TROF IS ALONG
32N21W 20N27W BUT IS ONLY CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO EXTEND
FROM 7N40W IN THE TROPICS NEWD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
WRN SAHARA. AFRICAN DUST IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE W...AND EXTENDS
E OF A LINE FROM 7N36W 20N45W AS WELL AS BEING DRAWN NEWD OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR MADEIRA ISLAND.

$$
BERG


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