[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON 23 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 12N MOVING W
10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 12N MOVING W
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA AND IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLANTIC
REGION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 6N29W 7N50W 8N51W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
7W-24W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF 9N ACROSS THE EQUATOR FROM 25W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE W GULF REMAINS SPLIT BY AN UPPER TROUGH SITUATED BETWEEN A
BROAD UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO AND A BROAD HIGH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE E GULF. THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA SSW TO THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS IS FUNNELING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE W GULF
W OF 92W AND E PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE SE GULF ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 26N E OF 92W. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF WITH A 1013 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 26N92W. A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS W ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 24N FROM E CUBA
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 92W WHERE HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
STILL PRESENT. THE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHEN A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ENTER THE NE GULF AND BE OVER S FLORIDA BEFORE THE END OF THE
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC JUST N OF PUERTO
RICO ACROSS HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N79W.
THIS TROUGH COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
E PACIFIC ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE E
CARIBBEAN S OF PUERTO RICO WITH AN E/W AXIS EXTENDING FROM 45W
TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING
GENERATED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND MOVING INTO THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 71W. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT
N INTO THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W
TO 26N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE N
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A SURFACE TROUGH
ENTERS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC ALONG 32N42W THROUGH FROM A 1004
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N58W EXTENDING SSW JUST N OF PUERTO RICO
TO OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE AREA N OF 22N FROM 50W-76W. DRY AIR
AT THE UPPER LEVELS IS LIMITING ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 28N. THIS IS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N55W NNE TO BEYOND 32N45W.
DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N FROM
45W-53W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 14N E OF
40W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH E OF THE
AZORES THROUGH 32N25W SW TO 24N37W. RIDGING IS ALSO NOTED INLAND
OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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