[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU 19 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE ADRIAN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC NEAR 12.6 90.6...OR 140 MILES...120 NM...SOUTHWEST OF
SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR...AT 19/1800 UTC MOVING NE AT 8 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING
STORM. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ADRIAN ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE S GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE PUSHING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND NICARAGUA PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  IN ADDITION...DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NEWD OUT AHEAD OF ADRIAN PRODUCING
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.  SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY NUMEROUS TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A
SHARP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET TO THE NW.  MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS CUBA FRIDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
NEARBY CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND CONFINED WITHIN THE
ITCZ.  AS SUCH...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SATELLITE
SIGNATURE AND THE CURRENT WAVE POSITION IS BASED UPON
EXTRAPOLATION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND VENEZUELA ALONG 64W/65W S
OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THIS POSITION IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
THE EXPECTED EXTRAPOLATED POSITION BASED UPON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.  MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS WAVE IS CONFINED OVER BRAZIL WITH A WEAKENING AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 62W-67W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE IT IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND NEARING
THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. ADRIAN.  THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON EXTRAPOLATION.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-84W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N35W 4N53W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
15W-35W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM EQUATOR TO 5N
BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GLFMEX FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  W OF THE
TROUGH...CONFLUENT FLOW IS CREATING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.  E OF THE TROUGH...DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE IS STREAMING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA CLIPPING THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA PRIMARILY ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO S FLORIDA. THIS IS CREATING STREAKS OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY SEWD.  HOWEVER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE TROUGH WILL BECOME STATIONARY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT.  AS A RESULT...POINTS N AND
WEST OF THE CURRENT TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REMAIN ESSENTIALLY DRY
AND TRANQUIL.  MEANWHILE...POINTS S AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE SW AND STREAKS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.

CARIBBEAN...
A VERY UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN IS CURRENTLY UNFOLDING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA COURTESY OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WHICH
IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA.
REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON
ADRIAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MEAN AXIS EXTENDING E/W
ALONG ROUGHLY 14N.  A SUBTROPICAL JET IN EXCESS OF 100 KT
EXTENDS AROUND THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE SE GLFMEX
EWD OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 27N.  THE JET IS CREATING A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.  THIS WILL ACT TO
FOCUS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH ADRIAN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING OVER CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRI.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN...BAND OF AMPLE
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM
PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO MONA PASSAGE.  THE BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED S OF HISPANIOLA WITH A SECOND AREA
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRYING WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER PUERTO RICO BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS
SWD WITH BASE ALONG 30N. ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JET IN EXCESS OF
100 KT LIES ALONG 27N.  FURTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GLFMEX WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW TO THE EAST
ADVECTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE W ATLC.
AT THE SURFACE...1007 MB LOW 150 NM NE OF THE TURKS/CAICOS
CONTINUES TO TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTION WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES SHEARING THIS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST.  CURRENTLY
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 61W-65W.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 20N-28N
BETWEEN 55W-70W.  EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL MOTION OF SURFACE LOW
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREA BETWEEN 60W-70W REMAINING
UNSETTLED/WET THROUGH FRI.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...SECOND 1007
MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 280 NM NE OF LOW.  BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE N OF 18N BETWEEN 30W-45W. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NEWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FINALLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF
AFRICAN DUST SPREADING WESTWARD S OF 20N TO THE ITCZ MAINLY E OF
55W.  NEW SURGE CURRENTLY SEEN EMERGING OFF AFRICA WITH LEADING
EDGE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
RHOME/BERG




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