[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU 19 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W S OF 13N MOVING WNW 15 KT.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY WITHIN
THE ITCZ AND THE WAVE IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT.
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WELL INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS
WAVE IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AFRICAN DUST
SURGE.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W/80W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE IT IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THEREFORE THE
POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 5N38W 4N48W 6N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 3.5N
FROM 24W-28W AND S OF 2N TO INLAND OVER BRAZIL FROM 45W-50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT IN
THE EXTREME W GULF WHERE MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE
COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ALLOWING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE TO PUSH S OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS FLOW IS
ALSO ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC AND T.S. ADRIAN ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ENTER THE SE GULF.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE CUTS ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES TO
OVER LOUISIANA.

E GULF...CARIBBEAN...AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1006 MB LOW NEAR THE TURKS/CAICOS ACROSS
HAITI TO 13N78W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
PANAMA IS ENHANCING THE MOISTURE FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN WHICH
IS SURGING N ACROSS THE SE GULF AND INTO THE ATLC WATERS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE W
ATLC. THIS SETUP IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 21N
AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE W ATLC WITHIN
150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N66W NNE TO 30N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS BEING GENERATED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA/PANAMA
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES INCLUDING PORTIONS OF LAKE
MARACAIBO. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER
AMPLIFIED BY AN TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST AS WELL AS
MOISTURE FROM T.S. ADRIAN MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. BOTTOM
LINE...AN UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N44W AND A 1010
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N45W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO 17N52W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWARD OFF OF THE UPPER LOW IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN
38W-45W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD BUT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE IN
THE ATLANTIC IS THE LARGE SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST THAT CONTINUES
TO PUSH TO THE WEST WITH LEADING EDGE ALONG 56W FROM THE ITCZ N
TO 20N. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DUST CONCENTRATIONS ARE
SLOWLY DECREASING.

$$
WALLACE


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