[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED 18 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W/24W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ITCZ AND IS NOT VERY WELL
ORGANIZED.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 56W S
OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 7N54W TO 9N60W. THIS WAVE IS
LOCATED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W S OF 17N MOVING W 10
KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN...SO IT SIGNATURE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 8N19W 5N33W 6N40W 5N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 150 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF 5N FROM 10W-20W AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE E
GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N87W. THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NE AHEAD OF A
SECOND...SHARPER...TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS TEXAS AND FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE W GULF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN IN THE E PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN
LATER THIS WEEK TO MOVE N TOWARD FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
POSSIBLY PRODUCING A MORE UNSETTLED/WET REGIME.

CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS. A 1008 MB
SURFACE LOW LOCATED ALONG THE S COAST OF E CUBA NEAR 20N76W
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE E WHILE A WEAKENING 1009 MB LOW
S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS COUPLED
WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/DIFFLUENCE AND AMPLE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 76W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR
13N70W17N70W ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 20N66W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS CENTERED
OVER S HAITI NEAR 18N73W. EXPECT THIS OVERALL SETUP TO LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS
STRONG. AS SUCH...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N47W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N43W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 24N48W TO
20N54W. THE TROUGH IS ALSO PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 500/550
NM E OF THE LOW/TROUGH FROM 15N-30N. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
ASSISTED BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING E BETWEEN 37W-53W.
EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH TO CONTINUE E DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM PRIMARILY FOCUSED N OF 16N
SHIFTING E TODAY THEN WEAKEN ON THU. ELSEWHERE OVER THE E
ATLC...LARGE SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD
WITH LEADING EDGE ALONG 50W EXTENDING FROM THE ITCZ NWD TO ABOUT
20N. THE DUST IS THINNING THUS ALLOWING CLOUDS TO FORM.

$$
WALLACE


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