[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI 06 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE WAVE CONTINUES
TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS DISPLACING
MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND APPEARS TO BE ELONGATING AS IT PASSES OVER THE
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
09N-17N BETWEEN 50W-62W INCLUDING BARBADOS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS BRINGING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N8W 6N20W 5N30W 3N40W 3N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 7N-11N BETWEEN 7W-10W....
BETWEEN 2N-7N FROM 19W-30W...BETWEEN EQ-7N FROM
30W-40W....BETWEEN 2N-8N FROM 40W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES IT WAY EASTWARD
AND EXTENDS FROM N ALABAMA/GEORGIA BOARDER S TO THE WESTERN TIP
CUBA INTERACTS WITH THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
PERSISTED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS.THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS  FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WESTWARD TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 27N83W. A COLD FRONT
TRAILS SW FROM THE LOW TO 22N88W THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWLY BEGUN TO PUSH EASTWARD DRAGGING THE
PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE E GULF...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVING E
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EXTENDING
FROM KEY WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS TO NEAR 24N84W...
EXPECT DRYING THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH HAS
PRODUCE RAPID CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST FINALLY BRINGING AN END
TO THE UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MEAN
AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERING MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT W OF 76W. AT THE SURFACE... COLD FRONT OVER
THE E GULF NEAR VENICE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE
SE GULF ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...CUBA  AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
ADVANCING SE AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE
LATER TODAY INTO SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND E CUBA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL
WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH W VERY SLOWLY OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE EAST. EXPECT HIGHER THAN USUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1015MB LOW NEAR VENICE FLORIDA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA THEN DISSIPATING
ON FRIDAY WITH A SECOND LOW NEAR 33N77W BECOMING THE DOMINANT
LOW AND MOVING NE UP THE COAST WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED THROUGH
FLORIDA...CUBA AND BAHAMAS...GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLC...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM...FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 29N62W...IS PRODUCING
DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. OVER THE E ATLC...THE DEEP LAYERED
LOW NEAR 32N29W WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 35N34W CONTINUES TO PUSH
SLOWLY NWD OUT OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOW N OF 32N.
ONLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE FRONT FROM 30N25W SW TO 20N37W.
EXPECT THE LOW TO BE N OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE ASSOCIATED HIGH WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED. OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AREAS OF DUST NOTED S OF A LINE FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG THE ABOVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE ITCZ.

$$
JP/LL




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