[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030613
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE 03 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 10N48W 5N50W MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT. THE
WAVE HAS SLOWED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CENTER WEAKENING THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENTAL EASTERLY FLOW. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY
FOR FRENCH GUIANA AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY TOMORROW.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN
48W AND 49W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N14W 6N20W 4N30W 2N36W 3N44W 5N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS
WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM RADIUS OF 4N12W...WITHIN 50 TO 60 NM RADIUS
OF 3N15W...WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF 1N22W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1S TO 6N BETWEEN
27W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 31N73W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
27N79W...OVER SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...TO 25N85W. STATIONARY FRONT 25N85W TO 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N88W. TROUGH FROM 23N88W LOW CENTER TO
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY BELIZE NEAR 17N89W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 82W
AND 86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BRINGING AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN DURING MOST OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT
PROBABLY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THOUGH THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST. CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEK WHILE CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEAR A STATIONARY
FRONT BANKED UP THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN
RANGE IN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THANKS TO A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COLOMBIA NORTH OF
7N AND IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...
AND IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN COSTA RICA ARE OCCURRING
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH STRETCH FROM EL SALVADOR TO HONDURAS ARE
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SURFACE TROUGH...AND
IN AN AREA OF A SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A CONTINUED INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
WHILE THE AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
OVERSPREAD WESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SLOWLY-MOVING WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES 31N73W
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W...OVER SOUTH FLORIDA INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N85W. STATIONARY FRONT
25N85W TO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N88W. TROUGH FROM
23N88W LOW CENTER TO YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY BELIZE
NEAR 17N89W. ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY IS FAR TO THE NORTH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS
FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME
STATIONARY SOON. TO THE EAST...BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL
50W ALONG WITH LOTS OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
27N36W. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS CONTROLLED BY A DEVELOPING
1007 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 27N38W MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 15 KT.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD TO 28N31W AND A COLD FRONT RUNS
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N40W AND 15N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
40 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N37W 25N34W 29N34W BEYOND
32N34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ALSO COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
21N TO 38N BETWEEN 19W AND 32W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ON
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER AND SHOULD COVER
A LARGER AREA EXTENDING INTO THE MIDDLE LATITUDES AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE AZORES HIGH TIGHTENS. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO LINGER NEAR 30N24W FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH
SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...MIDDLE TO UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 4N34W TO
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ.
UPPER LEVEL JET RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 19N30W WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND THICK OVERCAST CIRRUS WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE JET. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS SOUTH
OF 20N EAST OF 50W...BASED ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
OF YESTERDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENT
IS WEAKENING A BIT AS SLOW SETTLING OCCURS.

$$
MT


WWWW
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