[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 01 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N22W 3N41W 2N50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 2N-7N FROM 9W-17W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 18W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 23N-25N W OF KEY WEST TO 86.5W.  OTHERWISE MOST OF
THE GULF HAS OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS... BREAKING UP TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NW OF A LINE FROM 22N98W TO DESTIN FLORIDA.  A STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG THE BASE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS
WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST
S OF 22N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER ENERGY IS LEAVING THE
AREA TO THE NE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW LEFT BEHIND...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE TSTM CLUSTER IN THE SE GULF.  A
LARGE AREA OF SMOKE/HAZE CONTINUES TO COVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN
GULF S OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN W CUBA AND 94W.  THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THRU S FLORIDA LATE TOMORROW WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A TSTM BUT WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED COOLING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
ACTIVE THAN TYPICAL OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY S OF PUERTO RICO.  A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W WITH OTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN AREAS
OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF BARBADOS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...HIGH IS LOCATED JUST NW OF COLOMBIA COVERING THE SW/NW
CARIBBEAN WITH A UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
15N61W TO THE ABC ISLANDS.  TSTMS ARE FIRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL BRING AN ENHANCED RAIN CHANCE
OVER THE EXTREME NW PART OF THE AREA THRU TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW ATLC NEAR 31N78W TO NEAR FT PIERCE WITH
NO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT.  MID/UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLC
OTHERWISE W OF 60W.  THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTAINS THE MOST
INTERESTING SYSTEM ON THE MAP.. A DEVELOPING 1012 MB LOW NEAR
25N48W WITH WARM FRONT ENE TO 26N44W THEN 24N38W AND COLD FRONT
FORMING SSW TO 19N51W.  THIS UNUSUAL LOW DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TO
THE SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS BEING CAUSED BY A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR 25N49W WITH MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF 40W TO THE BAHAMAS.  DIVERGENCE ON THE E
SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS ASSISTING SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 38W-47W.  THIS LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BE
NEAR 27N37W BY TUE MORNING WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE.  THE LOW WILL BE A BIG WEATHER-MAKER FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEK AS IT SITS NEAR 30N35W FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
LIFTING OUT NEXT WEEKEND WITH STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.
FURTHER S...THE DEEP TROPICS ARE CONTROLLED BY A MID/UPPER HIGH
NEAR 8N36W RIDGING WSW TO 4N51W AND ESE TO 5N16W.  ITCZ
CONVECTION IS GENERALLY SUPPRESSED... PROBABLY IN PART TO A
LARGE AFRICAN DUST OUTBREAK MARCHING WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA S
OF 20N E OF 45W.  AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ALONG 47W S OF 10N...A WEAK LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WILL BE ADDED TO THE MAP AT 00 UTC...THOUGH IT IS PRODUCING
LITTLE CONVECTION.

$$
BLAKE

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