[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 31 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 4N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N
BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 44W-50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 22W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1006 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO NEAR 24N96W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO
LOUISIANAN NEAR 30N90W.  WINDS ARE FROM THE S OVER MOST OF THE
GULF SE OF THE TROUGH.  A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING NW OVER N MEXICO ALONG 28N100W
27N104W 29N107W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
THE NW CARIBBEAN NWD OVER CUBA AND FLORIDA THEN UP THE E COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A
POTENT S STREAM CLOSED LOW EMERGING FROM THE SW UNITED STATES.
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ARE MAINLY FOCUSED N OF THE AREA WHICH IS
PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PRIMARILY N OF THE AREA KEEPING THE GULF RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL A
COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE MOISTURE STARVED BUT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE SHOULD INCREASE THE MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK TRADES ARE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 14N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 79W-83W...AND ALONG THE THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 82W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE CARIBBEAN
REMAINS UNDER STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDING WITH A WELL
DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC NOTED IN THE UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND DATA NEAR 16N81W.  THE RIDGE IS CLIPPED ALONG THE E SIDE BY
A TROUGH DIGGING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.  CONFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT...THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N69W.  A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT ID OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N46W 28N50W
23N60W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E
OF FRONT N OF 26N.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
27N38W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 32N24W TO 27N26W
25N30W.  A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 32N11W
TO 27N13W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDING ALONG THE E
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES COUPLED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS PRODUCING DRY NW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC
WATERS.  INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS NOTED W OF
70W IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COURTESY OF AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO.   OVER THE E ATLANTIC A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE...DRY AND
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  IN FACT...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY DRY AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM AFRICA S
AND E OF A LINE FROM W SAHARA TO 10N45W.

$$
FORMOSA


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