[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 29 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N15W 2N30W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 34W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 3S41W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM
OF THE AXIS W OF 20W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DEVELOPING INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO UP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER S STREAM TROUGH MOVING OVER THE DESERT SW.
STRONG CONFLUENCE AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
PRODUCING RAPID CLEARING ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR S GULF FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER W CUBA. NORTH FLOW IS PROVIDING A BRIEF
COOLING TREND OVER THE N GULF AND FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 24N88W WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF REACHING S
FLORIDA BY TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY MID-WEEK AND DOMINATE UNTIL THE NEXT UPSTREAM
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY LATE WEEK. WSW UPPER FLOW AND A
WEAKENING JET WITH WINDS TO 100 KT EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC TO NEAR BERMUDA IS ADVECTING
PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO ACROSS THE S GULF INCLUDING S
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING ACROSS W CUBA OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE COAST
OF HONDURAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA W OF 84W.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER
THE AREA...STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING PREVAILS ANCHORED BY A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH NEAR 11N77W. THE WEAKENING JET THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF AND THE RIDGING TO THE E IS ADVECTING
PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS CREATING A STABLE
PATTERN ALOFT LIMITING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG CUTOFF LOW HAS MOVED OFF THE NE UNITED STATES COAST WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W EXTENDING
SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND W CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN N OF 30N EXTENDING E OF THE FRONT
ACROSS BERMUDA TO 60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS/LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIP THE N PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 30N DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FRONT SLIDES E PASSING OVER BERMUDA TODAY.
AS SUCH...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 30N
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT TO 24N. SHIFTING
EAST...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE
S CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO N OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC TO E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC BETWEEN
25W-50W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH HAS MERGED WITH THE
SECOND SURGE/COLD FRONT AND IS NOW A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
AREA NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N37W TO 21N46W THEN
DISSIPATES NW TO 20N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE EXTENDING WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT N
OF 20N. OVER THE FAR E ATLC...A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE PREVAILS WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE TROPICS
NEAR 8N22W NE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SW TO 21N30W. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION
AND ITCZ ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED NEAR THE EQUATOR.

$$
WALLACE


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